The conflict between Venezuela and Guyana for control of the Essequibo, what are we talking about?
What are the geopolitical issues and where does the conflict originate?
A former British colony founded around the Essequibo River, Guyana is a “young” state having obtained its independence in 1966.
Previously, it was London which decided for the Guyanese, which will bring its share of problems.
Venezuela is much older (1811) and quickly had disagreements over the border with the British Empire around the Essequibo.
An international arbitration was concluded in 1899, giving the territory to the British. The decision was accepted by everyone at the time.
It is important to note that Venezuela was represented by two American arbitrators at this arbitration, against the British. The judge was Russian.
Venezuela’s main argument today is that they could not represent themselves in 1899.
For 64 years there were no problems until Venezuela claimed the territory in 1964, just as Guyana was about to gain independence.
Then Caracas increased the pressure on Georgetown…
…going so far as to send around forty Venezuelan soldiers into the disputed territory in 2007.
Today, the referendum to be held in Venezuela on December 3 marks the culmination of nearly 2 centuries of tensions.
But Guyana does not intend to let this happen.
The country has filed a motion with the International Court of Justice in The Hague to prevent the referendum.
But who will force Venezuela to respect the law?
In this video, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali raises the national flag on a hill in Essequibo.
The referendum will also address the issuance of Venezuelan citizenship to annexed Guyanese citizens.
Doesn’t that remind you of a certain Russia in Crimea in 2014?
Caracas, a great ally of Moscow, is copying its annexation model to its borders.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is at his lowest in the polls in a country ravaged by hyperinflation (234% in 2022, compared to 686.4% in 2021).
Essequibo is an opportunity to appeal to the patriotism of its people to gain stability and political power.
And it seems to be working: many Venezuelans support the annexation of Essequibo on the networks and in the streets.
Many people praise their army and want to find out more about it with Guyana, which is preparing for the worst.
But Essequibo is above all access to titanic offshore oil reserves.
Venezuela, which already has enormous reserves, wishes to continue its exploitation and expand it.
Reserves are estimated to be higher than those of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the territory has not yet been acquired for Caracas. Guyana is a member of the Commonwealth and can undoubtedly count on the support of London.
However, it remains to be seen how the British will be able to help, while they are focused on Ukraine.
In the event of a Venezuelan invasion, the Essequibo represents 160,000 km² of virgin forest. Not easy to conquer.
The risk is the complete destabilization of the region, and the ablation of 2/3 of Guyana. France, through its geographical proximity, will have its say.
Guyana will also likely seek help from the United States, which should be more inclined to interfere due to its ideological aversion to Venezuela.
Unilateral annexation would be contrary to international law and America is their preserve.
And a fun fact: there is a whole political side in Guyana which is campaigning for the country to be integrated into the United States, a bit like Puerto Rico.
They even have a website and their own flag:
This is the private article from journalist Louis Duclos, who has published this article on the X media, with reference to the source:
Al In Media News 